Weather Outlook for Shetland – Tuesday, 5th February 2013 at 18:43

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SHETLAND

Tuesday, 5th February 2013 at 18:43

HEADLINES

TODAY: Rain then wintry showers and gales.
TONIGHT: Wintry showers. Gales.
TOMORROW: Wintry showers. Windy.
DAYS 3-5: Wintry showers dying out as strong winds ease.
DAYS 6-10: Possibly staying cold with night frosts when not windy.

SUMMARY

N’ly gales developing this evening as rain gives way to wintry showers overnight.

Bitterly cold on Wednesday with frequent snow showers accompanied by a strong to gale-force N’ly wind. The showers dying out during the evening as winds back N to NW’ly and begin to ease

Mostly dry and bright but cold on Thursday with wintry showers dying out as fresh NW’ly winds fall light. Winds remaining light on Friday, but cloudy with a little rain, sleet and hill snow.

Becoming a little less cold over the weekend with freshening S to SW’ly winds. Mainly dry on Saturday, perhaps with some rain, sleet and hill snow on Sunday together with strong S to SW’ly winds.

Winds perhaps easing after the weekend, bringing the risk of an overnight grass frost. The rest of next week possibly colder and unsettled with strong SW’ly winds.

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00 UTC

A fresh SW’ly airflow will fall light for a time today as a low to the west of Shetland drifts southeast close to Fair Isle. A strengthening N’ly airflow will then develop overnight as the low continues south down the North Sea and an anticyclone southwest of the UK ridges north towards Iceland.

This cold strong N’ly will persist through Wednesday, before easing on Thursday as a ridge declines east across northern Scotland.

A slack pressure field should persist across the area for much of Friday but, by the weekend, we may see a less cold SW to W’ly airflow a depression to the west of Iceland drives fronts east towards the British Isles.

During next week an anticyclone is predicted to be slow moving to the west or southwest of the British Isles while low pressure remains more or less stationary in the Iceland region.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS

Confidence level: Weather type – medium/high. Timing – medium.

Temperatures rising to around 3° Celsius by day, with an overnight low of between -1° and 1° or 2° Celsius.

TUESDAY 5^th: Bright and, apart from the odd light rain shower, mainly dry this afternoon. However, rain will be spreading into Shetland by dusk. Light winds at first, but a F5 N’ly developing across Orkney during the afternoon. Wet and windy this evening with a N’ly gale developing and the rain – perhaps some sleet -  in Shetland extending across Orkney. Becoming clearer after midnight along with frequent showers developing, these turning progressively wintrier as N or NW’ly winds strengthen F7 to severe gale F9 across the Isles. Perhaps some slushy deposits, leading to icy patches later in the night.

Sea State: Becoming rough to very rough, with a 3 to 6 metre N’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

WEDNESDAY 6^th: Bitterly cold with frequent and occasionally heavy snow showers accompanied by a F6 to gale F8 N’ly wind. The showers dying out during the evening as winds back N to NW’ly and begin to ease.

Sea State: Rough to very rough, with a 3 to 6 metre N’ly wind-swell. Highest in the west.

THURSDAY 7^th: Mostly dry and bright but cold with wintry showers dying out as F5-6 overnight NW’ly winds fall light. A grass frost likely early and late.

Sea State: Rough becoming moderate to slight, with a 3 to 4 metre N to NW’ly wind-swell decaying 1 to 2 metres.

10-DAY OUTLOOK

Confidence level: Weather type – low/medium. Timing – low.

Temperatures mainly in the daily range 4° to 6° Celsius by day, down to around -1° to +2° Celsius overnight.

FRIDAY 8^th: Winds remaining light, but cloudy with a little rain, sleet and hill snow.

Sea State: Rough in the west, with a 3 metre wind-swell, otherwise moderate to slight, with a 1 to 2 metre NW’ly wind-swell turning SW’ly.

SATURDAY 9^th: Bright and mainly dry. Becoming a little less cold as a S’ly breeze develops.

Sea State: Perhaps moderate to slight, with a 1 to 2 metre S’ly wind swell.

SUNDAY 10^th – FRIDAY 15^th: Cloudy with some rain, sleet and hill snow together with strong S to SW’ly winds.

Sea State on Sunday: Possibly becoming rough, with a 3 metre wind swell.

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DISCLAIMER

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe – and especially around the Northern Isles – is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the ’10-Day Outlook’ as a guide only – there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove
unreliable.

Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependent activity.

All forecasts are for planning purposes only.

Neither Dave Wheeler, nor any employee of Fair Isle Weather Services, accepts any liability for the accuracy of this forecast.

Dave Wheeler MBE FRMetS

Field

Fair Isle

Shetland, ZE2 9JU

Telephone: +44 (0)1595760224

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